Boomers on the bubble

What to look out for this week in Melbourne vs. China

Tonight, the Boomers begin their final preparations en route to hopefully going one (or, dare to dream, two) better from their performances at Tokyo 2020, with a duo of warm up games in Melbourne against China this week followed by the cull of the preliminary 17 man roster down to a final 12.

The chosen few will then head to Abu Dhabi for the USA Basketball Showcase, with games against the USA and Serbia, before the Paris Olympics begins proper.

To recap, a look at the 17 man preliminary roster:

1. Xavier Cooks - Sydney Kings (NBL)

2. Dyson Daniels - Atlanta Hawks (NBA)

3. Matthew Dellavedova - Melbourne United (NBL)

4. Dante Exum - Dallas Mavericks (NBA)

5. Josh Giddey - Chicago Bulls (NBA)

6. Chris Goulding - Melbourne United (NBL)

7. Josh Green - Charlotte Hornets (NBA)

8. Joe Ingles - Orlando Magic (NBA)

9. Nick Kay - Shimane Susanoo Magic (Japan)

10. Jock Landale - Houston Rockets (NBA)

11. Will Magnay - Tasmania JackJumpers (NBL)

12. Jack McVeigh - Tasmania JackJumpers (NBL)

13. Patty Mills - Miami Heat (NBA)

14. Duop Reath - Portland Trailblazers (NBA)

15. Matisse Thybulle - Portland Trailblazers (NBA)

16. Dejan Vasiljevic - Adelaide 36ers (NBL)

17. Jack White - Melbourne United (NBL)

For those of you playing along at home, that’s nine players currently contracted or last playing for an NBA team. In fact, the only two players in this squad without NBA experience are Chris Goulding, Nick Kay, Jack McVeigh and Dejan Vasiljevic (although you’d be forgiven for not remembering Will Magnay’s one game stint with the New Orleans Pelicans in 2021).

However, quality throughout the squad doesn’t mean much if it isn’t cohesive, as we saw at the World Cup last year, with the same roster sans Jock Landale, who suffered an ankle injury in a warm up game win against South Sudan. That roster, loaded with NBA talent, scratched and clawed their way to a second round exit, with losses against Slovenia and eventual world champions Germany marring their tournament.

It can’t be overstated how big a loss Landale was pre-tournament, with his ability to stretch the floor and play as both a four and a five in FIBA play replaced by Jack White in the squad. White, who is a fine player in his own right, was stylistically too similar to Xavier Cooks as an energetic hybrid four who can play some five, with a lack of consistent outside game often clogging the lane for Josh Giddey, among others, to operate.

To that end, it will be interesting to see how Brian Goorjian approaches these final two audition games, as the squad will be cut to the final 12 following the second game against China, with an emphasis on shooting surely placed given the squad’s struggles at the World Cup 12 months ago. The team shot 37% from three, a respectable mark, but not at the volume they would’ve liked, as their 25.4 attempts per game were only good for 23rd in the tournament, out of 32 teams.

Therefore, I’m expecting a real chance for the perceived fringe members of the squad like Dejan Vasiljevic and Jack McVeigh to make a real impression and push for selection given their strengths as marksmen from behind the arc. The return of Jock Landale and the confidence of Duop Reath following his debut season with the Trailblazers will help fill some of the void, but the lack of consistent shooting in the wing group will open opportunities for one of these guys to stake a claim.

Let’s start with Vasiljevic. After leaving the Kings to try and shake out an NBA career in Washington, the Canadian-born sniper returned to the NBL with Adelaide for the final 23 games of season 2023-24, averaging a career high 19.7 points per game. His 3 point percentage suffered, slipping down to 32.2% after being above 37% in each of his previous three seasons in Sydney, but I put that down to an expanded role as a more primary on-ball creator on a weakened roster, compared to the off ball role on championship calibre sides in Sydney.

A return to a more off ball role in a Boomers set up should see his splits revert back to his Sydney days, and if there’s one thing we know about Vasiljevic from his time in the NBL it’s that he’s never shy to get a shot up, something this Boomers side lacked last year.

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And then there’s newly-minted NBL champion Jack McVeigh, coming off a season where he shone as the main man in a championship run, averaging 16.4 points per game while hitting 36.4% of his threes. Much like Vasiljevic, McVeigh has a diverse offensive game, but while Vasiljevic is more adept at breaking down defenders in isolation, McVeigh attacks reckless closeouts well, while still being able to punish defenders that dare him to shoot the three.

McVeigh isn’t the volume three point threat Vasiljevic is, but there’s no doubt in my mind both men will have a chance to impress Goorjian with their offensive repertoires given the lack of real offensive consistency from more established NBA names like Josh Green and Dyson Daniels, who are more known on the other end of the floor.

That all being said, I do think the majority of this squad is close to locked in even before we see them run out. I think Daniels, Exum, Giddey, Green, Ingles, Landale, Mills, Reath and Thybulle are pretty much certainties to be on the plane to Paris. I know there was some chatter pre-World Cup about Daniels’ spot in the squad last year, but I’d say another year of NBA minutes under his belt and his defensive versatility and athleticism move him closer to lock than likely cut.

For mine, the return of Landale puts the status of both Cooks and White up in the air. Both thrive on the inside, being elite rebounders and transition threats, but lack refinement in their offensive games. I do think Cooks probably makes it but I’m not willing to lock him in, but I do think White has an uphill battle to make the squad, given he was only added once Landale got ruled out last year.

Also affected by Landale’s return is Nick Kay. Kay, much like the two men I’ll discuss next, has been a Boomers staple for the better part of a decade, and was a huge part of the squad that won bronze in Tokyo after Aron Baynes went down with his freak injury.

After averaging 11 points and 6.3 rebounds in the Olympics, those numbers slipped to 6.4 points and 4.6 rebounds in the World Cup, with his lack of athleticism on the defensive end being found out in partnership with Duop Reath, as teams would target both in a pick and roll before attacking the switch. Was that entirely Kay’s fault? No, the defensive scheme was terrible in auto-switching every soft screen sent their way, as well as the continuing decision to keep Reath and Kay on the floor as a pairing for long stretches of the game, but I do think, given Reath’s season in the NBA, Kay is now more likely to be on the roster bubble.

He remains a fantastic playmaker out of the high post, and a capable shooter and rebounder, but the question will be how in demand his skillset will be given the deficits in the squad elsewhere, and whether Kay’s profile can me made up in the aggregate.

Finally, there’s the question of Matthew Dellavedova (and to a lesser extent Chris Goulding). After a season as a victory cigar in Sacramento, following a tough Olympic campaign, Dellavedova was left off the World Cup squad, his shooting having fallen off a cliff, and his second-to-none defensive competitiveness and floor vision not enough to carry him in the squad in lieu of younger, more intriguing options. It was assumed his national team career was dead in the water.

And yet, he rebounded to average 11.8 points and 6 assists per game in his return season for Melbourne United, although his distance shooting again abandoned him (sub 30% after being over 37% his prior season in Melbourne). He’s still on the outside looking in for me, but I’m not willing to discount his floor presence if Goorjian wants to take some load off Josh Giddey.

As for Goulding, I think at this stage of his career, it’s worth going in a different direction, especially since he’s been picked for the last two major tournaments only to ride the bench for the most part. He had a strong season in the NBL, averaging 16.9 points per game and hitting 39.8% of his threes on just under 10 attempts per game, but if he’s not going to play, I’d pick someone else, especially as I think both Vasiljevic and McVeigh offer more diverse offensive games and better defence at this stage in all their respective careers, even if they aren’t the pure shooters that Goulding is.

THE ANTISOCIAL BASKETBALLER’S OLYMPIC SQUAD PREDICTION

*Pre China warm up games

1. Xavier Cooks

2. Dyson Daniels

3. Dante Exum

4. Josh Giddey

5. Josh Green

6. Joe Ingles

7. Jock Landale

8. Jack McVeigh

9. Patty Mills

10. Duop Reath

11. Matisse Thybulle

12. Dejan Vasiljevic

CUTS: Matthew Dellavedova, Chris Goulding, Nick Kay, Will Magnay, Jack White

People will point out how the lack of frontcourt depth hurt the Boomers at the World Cup and how I’ve still only got two centres here, but Landale’s inclusion is huge here and Cooks can play the five as well in FIBA play against most sides so I’m not concerned there.

Basically, I’ve loaded up on offense given the team’s struggles to score consistently at the World Cup (and for periods in the Olympics too), and I think there’s a nice mix of defensive presence on the wings (Green, Thybulle, Daniels, Exum) with offensive creativity (Giddey, Mills, Vasiljevic, McVeigh), which should also help alleviate some of the struggles that faced Giddey at the World Cup given the lack of spacing on the court at key moments.

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If you disagree for any reason, I’d love to hear why, comment below.

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